By Ronald MacDonald, Rod Cross
A key goal of the relevant ecu Economies (CEE) on their transition course from deliberate to extra market-oriented economies has been club of the eu Union (EU). the beginning of monetary and financial Union (EMU) in 1999 has further club of the EMU to the schedule for the CEEs. the duty of the so-called Visègrad nations (the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Poland) of getting ready for ecu and EMU club is the foremost subject matter underlying the papers contained during this quantity. there are numerous matters to be resolved earlier than the Visègrad nations are admitted into the european, and this quantity specializes in the problems in terms of macroeconomic guidelines and monetary area buildings. The chapters of Central Europe in the direction of financial Union:Macroeconomic Underpinnings and monetary Reputation comprise new theoretical and empirical effects and in addition entire institutional overviews. The meant readership of the ebook is coverage makers and economists operating within the educational and monetary sectors.
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Extra resources for Central Europe towards Monetary Union: Macroeconomic Underpinnings and Financial Reputation
The relatively long runs of data available for Poland and Hungary means that we can examine the time series properties of the real exchange rates both pre and post the 6 For example, the gap between a pair of near vertical RR and CC functions· even well away from equilibrium· will yield only a small payments deficit, so the adjustment in the money stock is rather minor. 40 introduction of refonns. The exact sample periods for each series are defined in the relevant Table. 4. ECONOMETRIC METHODS AND RESULTS In this section we examine the mean reversion properties of the real exchange rates defined above.
Then we ask if the fiscal position seems consistent with internal balance, taking a large fiscal deficit as an indicator that a current state of external balance may be threatened in the future. For external balance, we check whether net exports of goods and non-factor services, as the flow measure, corresponds to the real effective exchange rate as expected. In particular, does the trend in net exports suggest the need for a real devaluation prior to adopting a PPERR? In assessing the trend in net exports we also look at the dynamics of foreign debt.
In particular, does the trend in net exports suggest the need for a real devaluation prior to adopting a PPERR? In assessing the trend in net exports we also look at the dynamics of foreign debt. Up to 1994, Hungary shows the most rapid increase in the ratio, with the debt rising by almost half of export revenue in a year. Poland also has a rising ratio. Slovakia is near zero, and the Czech ratio is falling. If the current ratio of foreign debt to exports is not increasing, then the country is likely to be able to sustain the debt path in the absence of structural change with negative consequences for the current account.
Central Europe towards Monetary Union: Macroeconomic Underpinnings and Financial Reputation by Ronald MacDonald, Rod Cross